Highest temperature in Munich on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport on 15 August 2026, with resolution determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting minimal trading activity or a technical issue with market initialisation. Munich's August climate typically produces daily highs between 24–28°C, though heat waves can push temperatures above 30°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, which aligns with Munich's local afternoon hours when daily maxima are normally recorded.

Historical August temperatures at Munich Airport show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, daily highs on mid-August dates ranged from 19°C during cooler summers to 34°C during the 2022 European heat wave. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects the market's early stage rather than genuine certainty about temperature ranges. Cross-platform comparison reveals no corresponding sportsbook lines for weather outcomes, as traditional bookmakers rarely offer such granular meteorological contracts. Analyst consensus from European weather services typically becomes reliable only 10–14 days before the target date.

Traders should monitor seasonal forecasting models from mid-July onwards, particularly the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which publishes monthly outlooks. Atmospheric patterns in early August 2026 will determine whether high-pressure systems dominate central Europe, driving temperatures toward the upper ranges, or whether Atlantic weather systems bring cooler, unsettled conditions. Any significant divergence between Weather Underground's Daily Observations and other meteorological databases could affect settlement interpretation, though the market's explicit resolution hierarchy mitigates this risk.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.