Highest temperature in Munich on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s top temperature on 6 August will determine whether the contract lands in a cooler or warmer Celsius band, and the market is currently pricing **0% YES**, which is far below the sort of outcome implied by most weather services. AccuWeather’s August 2026 page shows Munich with daily highs around **80°F–81°F** early in the month, including **80°F/62°F** for 6 August, while WeatherSpark’s August climatology puts typical Munich highs around **75°F to 70°F** across the month, with rare peaks up to **87°F**.[1][10] That makes the contract’s resolution range sensitive to whether the day tops out near the low 20s Celsius or whether a brief warm spell pushes it into the mid-to-high 20s.

Cross-platform, the divergence is stark: Yandex’s forecast for 6 August shows an afternoon around **20°C**, Meteum points to **24°C**, and Met Office forecasts in the low-to-high **20s** Celsius, all of which sit well above a zero-implied price if the market’s range requires a very specific upper band.[2][3][17] Forecast uncertainty in Munich in August is usually driven by shower activity, cloud cover and modest winds rather than extreme heat; several sources also flag rain or changeable conditions around the date, which tends to cap highs even when mornings start mild.[5][14][16] Traders should therefore watch the latest airport-area forecast updates, especially any shift in afternoon cloud and precipitation timing, because a late-morning warm-up or early shower could move the day’s maximum across the relevant band before the settlement cut-off.[3][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.