Highest temperature in Munich on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport Station looks set for a fairly warm but not extreme 7 August, and the market is asking whether the day’s *peak* temperature lands in the upper bands or stays closer to the low 20s Celsius. The crowd-implied probability is **0% YES**, which is materially lower than the published forecast picture: AccuWeather’s monthly outlook has Munich’s 7 August high at about 81°F/27°C, while other forecast providers cluster lower, mostly around 24–25°C, with rain or showers also appearing in several models.[1][2][7][14]

That gap matters because this contract resolves to the **highest temperature recorded** at Munich Airport Station on the day, so a single brief warm spell can settle it above the main forecast range even if the afternoon is otherwise unsettled. Historical August readings in Munich usually top out in the low to mid-20s Celsius, with average daytime highs near 22–24°C and a modest chance of hotter outliers, so the crowd’s zero price is best read as a statement that a threshold above the common forecast band is unlikely, not impossible.[8][10]

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s cloud cover, rain timing, and any short-lived warming before showers arrive. Forecasts differ on whether 7 August is mainly sunny or rain-affected, with one source showing moderate-to-heavy rain and another pointing to a partly cloudy, warmer afternoon; that divergence is exactly where prediction-market pricing can detach from consensus weather lines.[2][7][14] The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 7 August, but the market cannot resolve until the full-day high is known from Wunderground, so late-afternoon heating remains relevant even after midday.[market description]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.