Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 14 August 2026, with resolution tied to the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, suggesting traders view the outcome as either extremely unlikely or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to generate meaningful odds. Settlement occurs at midday on the resolution date, creating a hard deadline for temperature measurement.

August temperatures at LaGuardia historically range between 72°F and 88°F, with extreme highs above 95°F occurring roughly once per decade. The 2022 heat dome pushed New York to 99°F on 7 July, whilst the summer of 2024 saw multiple days exceed 90°F across the Northeast. These precedents establish that whilst exceptional heat is plausible, it remains statistically uncommon for mid-August. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects either a very narrow temperature band being priced (making any specific range unlikely) or minimal trading activity establishing a floor price.

Traders monitoring this contract should track National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 14 August 2026, which typically provide reliable 7-day outlooks for major metropolitan areas. Atmospheric patterns favouring heat domes—persistent high-pressure systems and tropical moisture—would be the primary catalyst for material probability shifts. Historical precedent suggests late-summer heat waves in the Northeast often correlate with broader continental patterns visible 10–14 days in advance, providing early warning signals for position adjustment.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.