Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s temperature on 2 August depends on the high recorded at LaGuardia Airport, and the market is currently pricing that outcome at effectively zero despite the practical difficulty of pinning down an exact daily peak. Live forecast pricing from Polymarket shows the bulk of the probability mass in the mid-to-high 70s and low 80s, with the leading bands around 82–83°F and 84–85°F, while Robinhood’s contract data is broadly similar, putting 82°F at 69¢ and 83°F at 32¢, which implies a market view that the day is more likely to finish in the low-to-mid 80s than in any colder range.[5][2]

That pricing sits in the context of a hot New York summer: AccuWeather’s August outlook for New York shows daily highs ranging from 77° to 88°F, and long-range August commentary from local reporting and weather sites has pointed to above-average heat risk for the region.[1][18] The nearest useful comparison is the early-July heat spell, when New York reached 100°F and coverage described extreme heat warnings across the area; that episode is a reminder that late-summer spikes can still reach the upper 80s or beyond, but they are weather-dependent rather than guaranteed.[7][19] For an outcome to settle in the higher brackets, a sustained warm airmass and enough sunshine through the afternoon would need to outweigh any cloud cover or rain-cooled boundary layer.

Traders should watch the final hourly forecast trend, especially any shift in cloud cover, rain chances, or wind around LaGuardia, because the market resolves to the *highest recorded* temperature at that station rather than an average or noon reading.[3] The main dependencies are straightforward: if forecast models trim the afternoon peak by even a few degrees, the contract can migrate quickly away from the top bands, while a hotter late-day update would reinforce the current lean towards the low-80s cluster seen across prediction-market venues.[5][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.