Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport’s highest temperature on 3 August will be the settling number, and the crowd is currently assigning **0%** to the market’s YES side even though the live contract view on Polymarket shows the hottest daytime bands clustered much lower, with **82–83°F** and **84–85°F** together dominating the board rather than extreme heat. Polymarket’s own display says the leading outcome is 82–83°F at 35%, followed by 84–85°F at 33%, while Robinhood’s comparable NYC daily high market is quoted at **81°F** at **68¢**, implying a somewhat cooler consensus than the top Polymarket bins.[1][6]

Historically, New York City’s early-August highs usually sit in the low-to-mid 80s rather than the upper 80s or 90s, so a 0% reading against a LaGuardia settlement source looks more like a pricing disconnect than a strong temperature signal. Climate-monitor data for 3 August 2026 in the region show a daily maximum of **83°F** at one monitor, which is consistent with the idea that the market is really pricing around a normal August warm-up, not a breakout heat event.[5] That matters because this contract is not about the citywide feel of the day but the single highest reading at LaGuardia, where airport-specific timing and local sea-breeze effects can make the final print differ from headline NYC forecasts.[1][16]

The main trader catalysts are the late-day evolution of the forecast and whether any showers or thunderstorms cap the afternoon maximum before the first post-midnight update locks the settlement window. CBS New York reported a storm threat for the NYC area on Monday 3 August, with flash-flooding risk across the region, which is relevant because cloud cover and precipitation can shave a degree or two off the peak even when the broader August pattern remains warm.[9] The key dependency is the Wunderground history feed for KLGA, since the market resolves to the highest recorded temperature there, not to a forecast, model output, or a different airport station.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.