Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the LaGuardia Airport Station will record its peak temperature in degrees Fahrenheit, a single real-world data point that determines the outcome of this weather contract. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific high-temperature range appears starkly divergent from cross-platform odds, where Polymarket assigns a 94% chance to the 96–97°F bracket and a 41% chance to 98–99°F[1]. This meaningful split between prediction-market consensus and sportsbook lines suggests traders are weighing historical heat extremes against a potentially mispriced binary outcome, with analysts favouring the upper ranges based on recent climatic behaviour.

Historical records at LaGuardia show the station has recently shattered midnight temperature barriers, reaching 94°F on 18 July 2013 and breaking that record again with 94°F at midnight in a recent heatwave[2]. The station also recorded 104°F during a record-breaking day, proving the location can sustain extreme highs well above 90°F[6]. This history of rising temperature ceilings frames the current 0% probability as an outlier, indicating that the market may be underestimating the likelihood of a 96°F+ day given the station’s proven capacity for extreme heat.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological data releases and any upcoming heatwave advisories for the East Coast, as these schedules directly influence peak temperature dependencies[3]. Recent FOX Weather reports confirm that LaGuardia is currently the hottest midnight location on the East Coast, a trend that often precedes sustained daytime highs[2]. The settlement window ending 12:00:00Z on 4 July 2026 means traders must watch for any sudden shifts in the midnight-to-morning temperature curve, which could act as the primary catalyst for the final resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.