Highest temperature in Paris on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport’s high on 3 August will be judged on the single warmest reading recorded that day, so the market is really about the afternoon peak rather than the daily average. Polymarket currently prices **35°C** as the leading outcome at **38%**, with **36°C** next at **29%** and only **5%** for **32°C or below**; that leaves the contract implying a meaningful but not dominant chance of a mid-30s maximum, and effectively no crowd support for a cool day. [1]

Historically, Paris in August is warm but not usually extreme, which is why the current crowd is clustering around the middle of the range rather than the upper tail. WeatherSpark’s Paris August climate pages show average summer conditions well below the 30s Celsius, while more recent coverage has highlighted that France has just come through an unusually hot summer, including a late-June heatwave that set or matched records and pushed Paris above 40°C in some reporting. That contrast matters: a normal August pattern would make 35°C look plausible, but the recent heat backdrop keeps 36–38°C on the table more than long-run averages alone would suggest. [3][4][12][19]

For traders, the main catalysts are the updated Paris forecast, any new heat alerts for Île-de-France, and the timing of afternoon convection or cloud cover, which can cap the day’s maximum even when morning temperatures are already elevated. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Paris still shows daily highs broadly in the low- to low-mid 30s Celsius equivalent range, which sits close to the market’s centre of gravity rather than the extreme outcomes. Compared with the Polymarket board, there is no obvious sportsbook line in the supplied sources, so the cleanest cross-platform read is that the crowd is leaning to 35°C with only a small premium for a hotter-than-forecast spike. [1][2][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.