Highest temperature in Paris on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris’s temperature market is pricing in a modest midsummer high rather than an extreme spike: the Polymarket crowd has the contract anchored at **26°C** with **55%** implied probability, while **25°C** is the main alternative and **27°C** sits well behind, so the market is far from treating the outcome as settled. That pricing is broadly consistent with recent Paris forecasts that call for a warm but not exceptional afternoon, with one local forecast summary pointing to about **17°C in the morning and 26°C in the afternoon** and another showing highs near **81°F** for the day, which is roughly **27°C**.[2][13][1]

Historically, Paris in August usually sits in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, so a peak around 25–26°C is closer to climatology than to heatwave territory.[5][10] The useful comparison is not Paris’s all-time extremes — which are far higher — but ordinary August variation: a small shift in cloud cover, wind direction or shower timing can move the day’s maximum by a degree or two and decide whether the result lands in the 25°C, 26°C or 27°C band.[17][5] That is why the current 0% YES read looks inconsistent with the live market, and the more relevant comparison is between the contract’s price and forecast-based consensus rather than any long-run weather norm.[2][13]

For traders, the key catalysts are the final forecast updates from Météo-France and any last-minute changes in cloud, rain or thunder risk, because those are what can pull the daily high away from the consensus zone.[13] The contract resolves off the **Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station** reading on Wunderground, and revisions are considered until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late evening updates and overnight corrections still matter for the final print.[2] If nearby stations or airport reporting show a warmer-than-expected afternoon, the market can reprice quickly; if cooler marine air or shower activity holds, the downside is usually into **25°C** rather than a dramatic collapse.[13][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.