Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s temperature on 10 August is likely to finish in a fairly tight band around the low 70s Fahrenheit, with the airport station historically spending August days near the upper 60s to low 70s and the recent Daily Observations for 10 August already showing a 71°F peak by early afternoon. Weather Underground’s station history and the National Weather Service climate normals both place the date’s typical maximum at about 73°F, while the official daily climate record is much higher, so the market’s useful question is not whether the day can be hot, but whether it can clear the low-70s range that dominates nearby outcomes.[2][6][7]

That context helps explain why a 0% YES price looks aggressively low versus both weather-model style consensus and competing market pricing. Polymarket’s contract for the same event has been trading with 70-71°F and 72-73°F as the leading bands, implying a materially warmer distribution than this market’s zero reading, and AccuWeather’s August outlook also points to a forecast high around 68°F for the day, with a 58°F low, which is consistent with a modest marine-layer capped afternoon rather than an extreme cool spell.[15][16] For traders, the key catalysts are whether the marine layer clears quickly after the morning update cycle, whether winds stay onshore through the afternoon, and whether the final Daily Observations entries at KSFO add another degree or two before the settlement cutoff; the resolution will turn on that station table rather than the headline Day High & Low summary.[2][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.