Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s temperature on 10 August will be measured against the **Incheon Intl Airport Station** reading, with the market resolving to the highest value logged in Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table rather than any headline “Day High & Low” figure. Polymarket’s own order book currently prices the centre of mass around **34°C** at 44%, with **33°C** close behind at 40%, which implies traders are clustering around a fairly tight range rather than pricing a broad heat-wave surprise.[2]

That pricing sits above the seasonal norm for Seoul in August, when average highs are typically in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, but it is not out of line with the current heatwave backdrop. Reuters reported on 6 August that Seoul was forecast to reach **39°C** as South Korea’s extreme heat continued, while the Korea Meteorological Administration said hot conditions were expected to persist into next week; other coverage noted Seoul had already topped **40°C** in early August at some monitoring points.[10][7] Those readings matter for context, but this contract is narrower: a single airport station’s day-high observation, not the citywide maximum.[2]

For traders, the key catalysts are the KMA short-range forecast updates, any shift in cloud cover or easterly flow, and the timing of the first post-midnight observations that can lock in the final daily high. The market rules also say revisions are considered only until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late amendments to the Daily Observations table can still matter if they arrive before that cut-off.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.