Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring at midday UTC. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete market formation or a technical issue in odds aggregation.

August temperatures in Seoul historically cluster between 28–32°C, with extreme heat events pushing into the 35–37°C range. The city experienced a peak of 39.6°C in August 2018 during an exceptional heatwave, though such extremes occur roughly once per decade. Daily maxima in mid-August typically fall within the 29–33°C band based on thirty-year climate records. The 0% crowd probability across all bins indicates traders have not yet calibrated positions, making cross-platform comparison difficult; traditional weather forecasting services and sportsbook lines on Korean summer temperatures are not yet available for this specific date.

Traders should monitor the East Asian monsoon pattern and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late July and early August 2026, as these systems significantly influence Seoul's temperature trajectory. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes extended forecasts approximately two weeks ahead; their mid-July 2026 outlook will be the primary catalyst for market repricing. Resolution depends entirely on Incheon station data, which occasionally differs from Seoul city centre readings by 1–2°C, making station-specific historical data more relevant than broader city averages.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.