Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's maximum temperature on 12 August 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete pricing or a data feed lag rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

August temperatures in Seoul historically peak between 28–32°C, with extreme heat events occasionally pushing above 35°C. The city experienced 34.3°C on 12 August 2019 and 33.8°C on the same date in 2018, establishing a baseline for typical summer conditions. Incheon Airport, located on the coast, tends to record slightly cooler maxima than central Seoul due to maritime influence, typically running 1–2°C lower than downtown stations. The 0% crowd probability appears misaligned with climatological norms; even conservative forecasts would assign meaningful probability to ranges covering 28–32°C given historical frequency.

Traders should monitor South Korea's meteorological agency (KMA) seasonal outlooks and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August 2026, as typhoons can suppress temperatures or create anomalous conditions. Real-time weather model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS will become actionable only in the final 10–14 days before settlement. The resolution mechanism's explicit reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary introduces a minor technical dependency; traders should verify data consistency between these sources historically to assess settlement risk.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.