Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The contract depends on the **highest temperature at Incheon International Airport Station** on 3 August, which means the key question is whether the airport can briefly break well above the surrounding city forecasts. Current crowd pricing at **0% YES** implies the market sees the settlement bands above the observed high as very unlikely, but that looks more like a hard scepticism about an airport-only spike than a view that the day will be cool. Regional forecasts in the Korean press point to a very hot afternoon, with Seoul around 37°C and the capital area under a heatwave warning, while Incheon itself is generally forecast a little lower, around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius[1][3][8].

That gap matters because airport stations often run cooler than dense urban centres, and the market resolves on the single highest reading rather than the forecast maximum for the city as a whole. Comparable forecast coverage for Seoul shows August highs typically in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius on hot days, with monthly averages around the mid-20s, which makes a 30s reading plausible but leaves the upper settlement bands dependent on how strong the easterly flow and sunshine become[2][11][17]. Analyst-style weather coverage is also split by geography: one Korean forecast puts Incheon at 34°C, another at 32°C, both below Seoul’s 37°C estimate, reinforcing the idea that the market is really pricing a local ceiling rather than a broad regional heat story[3][8].

Traders should watch the morning and early afternoon KMA updates, since the main catalysts are changes in wind direction, cloud cover, and whether showers remain confined away from the capital area. SBS reports easterly winds shifting heat west of the mountains and a clear sky over much of the country, while also flagging fog in parts of Incheon and the west coast early in the day, which can moderate the opening hours before stronger heating later on[1]. Any upgrade in the official Incheon forecast, or evidence that the airport escapes marine influence and mixes down hotter air, would be the most direct reason for the contract to reprice away from the current zero-implied stance[3][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.