Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the **maximum temperature at Incheon International Airport on 5 August 2026**, and the current crowd-implied **0% YES** looks far too low against the weather picture. Seoul-area forecasts today point to severe heat, with Seoul expected to reach **38°C** and western regions under the strongest heat warning, while broader August climatology in the city sits much lower, typically around the high 20s to low 30s Celsius.[1][2][14]

That gap matters because this contract resolves on the day’s *peak* at a specific airport station, not the citywide daily mean. Comparable August cases in Seoul usually trade around hot-but-not-extreme outcomes, with long-run August averages near **28°C daytime** and record highs just over **38°C**, so a settlement above the low-30s is uncommon but not out of family for a midsummer heatwave.[2][14][19] The contrast between the market’s zero bid and forecast-based expectations also suggests the contract is pricing in either a data issue, a misunderstanding of the settlement source, or a belief that airport conditions will stay materially cooler than inland Seoul.

For traders, the main catalysts are the near-term evolution of the Korean heatwave and any local showers or cloud cover that could cap the afternoon high at the airport. SBS reports the heatwave warning is already at its highest level for the Seoul metropolitan area, with **38°C** forecast for Seoul and only patchy western showers, which supports elevated upside risk if clear skies hold through peak heating.[1] The relevant dependency is not just the Seoul forecast, but whether Incheon Airport tracks the same air mass on the day; if the airport stays slightly cooler than central Seoul, the settlement range could still shift lower even in a national heat event.[1][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.