Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the day’s **peak temperature at Incheon International Airport Station**, and the market is effectively a call on whether August heat in the Seoul–Incheon corridor reaches the upper end of the local forecast range. Current crowd pricing at **0% YES** sits well below the mainstream weather outlook: AccuWeather’s August view puts Seoul’s daily highs around **81–88°F** (about **27–31°C**), while Korean media citing the Korea Meteorological Administration expects **Incheon around 38°C** and Seoul around **39°C** on 6 August.[1][2][3]

That gap matters because the contract resolves on the highest reading recorded during the day, not simply the afternoon forecast high. Comparable August patterns in Seoul usually cluster around the low-30s Celsius rather than the high-30s, and WeatherSpark shows the month’s average high peaking near **85°F** on 6 August, underscoring how extreme a 38–39°C outcome would be relative to climatology.[14][17][18] If the airport station runs a degree or two cooler than central Seoul, a low-crowd-implied contract can still be mispriced, but the market is clearly leaning against an exceptional heat outcome.

Traders should watch for the KMA short-range updates, any shift in the heatwave warning, and whether cloud, rain, or sea-breeze effects trim the airport’s realised maximum relative to inland Seoul.[4][10] SBS reported that winds were expected to ease only from the weekend, while today’s heat was still forecast to reach **39°C** in Seoul, suggesting the main dependency is whether the airport station tracks the same peak or undershoots because of local maritime influence.[3][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.