Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s August heat is the key reference point for this contract, but the settlement depends on the specific Incheon Intl Airport Station reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, so broad city forecasts are only a guide. Current outside coverage points to a very hot afternoon: SBS says Seoul is expected to peak near 39°C today, with heatwave warnings widened across the capital area and only a slight easing into the weekend[2]. That sits well above the 30°C-plus daily highs shown in several forecast feeds for 7 August, suggesting the market’s 0% YES crowd price is far below the weather setup implied by public forecasts[1][3][9].

For historical context, Seoul in August is usually hot, with average daytime highs around the upper 20s Celsius and occasional spikes much higher, while the record August high cited by Holiday Weather is 38.2°C[18]. Comparable forecast pages for Seoul also point to values in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius rather than anything close to cool conditions[1][5][12]. The main divergence to watch is between those city-level forecasts and the station-specific Incheon Airport observation that actually governs settlement; that means traders should focus on the live observations around the measurement window, plus any late-day rain or maritime influence that could cap the peak below the higher city forecasts[2][14].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.