Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s temperature on 10 August will be judged against the **highest reading at Pudong International Airport**, not the headline daily summary, which matters because small intraday spikes can decide the band even when the day looks broadly similar on the forecast page. The market is currently pricing **0% YES**, which is a clear outlier versus the climatology: August in Shanghai typically averages about **32.5°C** for highs, and multiple weather-history sources put early-to-mid-August daytime peaks in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius. [1][8][14]

That makes the relevant comparison less about whether Shanghai is hot — it usually is — and more about whether the airport station reaches the contract’s specific temperature bucket before the settlement window closes at **12:00 UTC**, which is around early evening local time. Recent forecast pages point to a hot, unsettled setup with overcast skies, very high humidity and rain risk, but still around **83–84°F** in the daytime forecast range, roughly **28–29°C**; if that pattern holds, the contract would stay well below the buckets associated with a true heat spike. [13][17]

For traders, the key catalyst is the live station data at **Shanghai Pudong International Airport**, because aviation stations can diverge from city averages during rain, cloud cover and sea-breeze effects. Weather Underground’s own history pages show the market’s resolution source is a station-level daily observations table, so the main watch item is not a media headline but whether midday heating, convective bursts, or a late-morning break in cloud cover pushes the recorded maximum above the implied consensus. Compared with the 0% crowd view, forecast providers are not signalling an extreme outcome, but they are still pointing to conditions warm enough that a non-zero tail risk remains if the airport briefly jumps during the settlement period. [7][13][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.