Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal engagement with this contract at present.

August represents Shanghai's peak summer season, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 32–35°C during this period. Data from the past decade shows that temperatures exceeding 36°C occur in roughly 15–20% of August days, whilst readings below 30°C are exceptionally rare. The 0% probability reading appears disconnected from seasonal norms, indicating either that traders have already committed to a particular outcome range or that the market lacks sufficient liquidity to generate meaningful price discovery. Cross-platform comparison with weather-focused betting operators would reveal whether sportsbooks or meteorological consensus models diverge materially from this assessment.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during late July and early August could materially suppress temperatures through increased cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems would elevate readings. The specific resolution methodology—requiring Daily Observations data rather than summary high-low figures—introduces a technical dependency on Weather Underground's data collection protocols at Pudong station, which occasionally experiences brief gaps or calibration adjustments that could affect marginal cases.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.