Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s airport station needs to post a maximum on 7 August that falls into the market’s settlement band, with the practical benchmark being whether the day gets much hotter than the low-30s Celsius rather than merely reaching a typical August high. Current public forecasts and climate guides cluster around a very hot day: AccuWeather shows Shanghai’s August highs broadly in the low- to mid-30s Celsius, and one local forecast outlet puts 7 August at around 35°C with the possibility of 37-38°C elsewhere in the city under a subtropical ridge. [1][2][10] That makes the crowd-implied 0% YES look notably detached from the weather picture, because most comparable guidance is consistent with a high well above ordinary August averages. [1][7][8]

Historically, Shanghai’s August climate is hot and humid, with long-run references putting average highs near 31-32°C, but the upper tail can run several degrees hotter during heatwave episodes. [7][8][19] For a contract tied specifically to Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, the key comparison is not city-wide comfort but whether the airport records an extreme enough reading to land in the relevant range; in practice, that means traders should compare this market against both the seasonally normal August profile and any active heat-alert pattern. [1][6][10] On that basis, an all-zero market price implies either a missing market or a strong expectation that the observed airport maximum will come in below the settlement threshold, which is hard to square with the published forecast range. [1][10]

The main catalyst is the day-of weather evolution in and around Pudong: a subtropical high, daytime sunshine, and any late-afternoon thunderstorms that could trim the peak temperature before the official daily maximum is set. [10][18] Forecast dispersion matters because some sources point to low-30s highs while others indicate mid-to-upper 30s heat, so the reading from the airport station may diverge from broader Shanghai forecasts depending on cloud cover, sea-breeze effects, and storm timing. [1][2][10] There is no meaningful sportsbook-style line for this contract in the available data, so the comparison is really between the near-certain-looking weather outlook and the market’s zero-per-cent pricing, with analyst consensus from forecast providers leaning far closer to a hot-day outcome than to a cold one. [1][7][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.