Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s highest temperature on 10 August is shaping up as a straightforward heat market, with live forecasts clustered around **35–36°C** and no sign of a widespread cooling pattern. Polymarket’s current book shows **36°C at 53%** and **35°C at 24%**, while AccuWeather is calling for a **97°F/36°C** high and timeanddate’s hourly history already shows temperatures around **91–97°F** through the morning and early afternoon. [9][10][1]

That makes the 0% YES reading look markedly lower than both the public forecast consensus and the comparable-climate baseline. Shenzhen’s August norm is hot and humid, with historical averages around **32°C/89°F** for the month and an August 10 average high of about **33°C/91°F** in one historical dataset, so outcomes in the mid-30s Celsius are not unusual. [3][8][15] The key comparison for traders is not whether it gets hot, but whether the airport station’s *Daily Observations* peak lands in the exact band that resolves the contract, since the market settles on the highest recorded temperature at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport rather than the broader “Day High & Low” summary. [6][9]

The main catalyst is the sequence of station observations through the afternoon and early evening, when Shenzhen typically posts its daily maximum, and any late revision before the first datapoint for the following date appears can still matter for settlement. [9] Weather Underground’s airport history and the short-range forecast layers from AccuWeather and timeanddate are the most relevant cross-checks, while the absence of meaningful precipitation or a sudden cloudburst would leave the upside skew towards the upper-30s Celsius band rather than a cooler surprise. [6][10][12][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.