Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s airport station needs to print the single highest reading on 4 August, and the latest market setup still has that event priced as if a low-30s Celsius outcome is only a remote possibility. Polymarket is already anchored around **29°C** at 31% and **30°C** at 21%, with only 7% left for **35°C or higher**, while the current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** on the broader contract suggests traders see very little chance of an extreme upside surprise relative to the posted ranges.[14]

That pricing sits against a climate backdrop that normally favours hot, humid August days in Shenzhen, but not necessarily a midday spike far above the low 30s. August normals are commonly cited around **32°C/26°C** or roughly **90°F/79°F**, with heavy rainfall and many rainy days in the month, which tends to cap intraday highs even when the air mass is warm.[1][3][4][19][20] The comparison point is the official regional forecast for 4 August, which put Shenzhen at **25-29°C** under overcast conditions, with nearby cities higher but still mostly in the low to mid-30s; that kind of spread is consistent with the market’s bias towards the upper 20s rather than a break into the mid-30s.[5]

The main trader watchpoint is the day’s actual airport observation series on Wunderground, because this market resolves to the highest temperature recorded there, not a city average or a forecast value. For now, the live weather picture from major forecasters still leans humid and showery, with AccuWeather, BBC Weather and Met Office-style outputs all showing rain or showers mixed with temperatures centred around the high 20s to low 30s, which matters more than a single headline high because brief sun breaks can still lift the official maximum.[7][11][12][16] The meaningful cross-platform gap is that sportsbook-style weather lines and forecast pages are effectively clustered around the same mid-range outcome, while the prediction market is already discounting that range quite aggressively, leaving the contract most sensitive to any afternoon clearing or thunderstorm timing.[5][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.