Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The outcome depends on the highest temperature logged at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport on 31 July 2026, and the contract’s current **0% YES** implies the crowd is effectively pricing in an outcome outside the listed higher ranges or simply a very low chance that the airport reaches them. July is normally Shenzhen’s hottest month, with average highs around **31°C** and regular readings in the **32–34°C** area, while historical summaries show an all-time city record high of **36.4°C** and recent July observations still well into the low- to mid-30s Celsius.[1][2][14] That means the market is not about whether it will be hot, but how far above seasonal norms the airport station can run before the daily maximum is fixed.

For comparable cases, the key context is that Shenzhen’s summer temperatures are often compressed into a narrow band by coastal humidity, clouds and rainfall, so the upper tail matters more than the average day. Public weather-history pages for the city show July highs clustering around the low 30s Celsius, with late-July daily highs on some years in the **28–34°C** range and an occasional spike above that.[2][14] Against that backdrop, a 0% crowd price looks materially more bearish than the climatology alone would justify, especially if one compares it with the airport’s own historical warmth and the broader city record.[1][15]

The main catalysts are short-term weather drivers rather than scheduled announcements: cloud cover, afternoon convection, rain bands from the monsoon, and any tropical system tracking through southern China can suppress the maximum temperature at the airport. For resolution, traders should watch the same-day history page at Wunderground for Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, since that is the settlement source, and compare it with nearby forecast and observation feeds in case local sea-breeze effects or storm timing alter the peak before the noon UTC settlement window closes.[9][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.