Highest temperature in Singapore on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Singapore’s afternoon high on 6 August is the event that matters here, measured at Changi Airport and resolved from Wunderground’s daily record. The market is currently pricing a **32°C** peak as the clear favourite, and that lines up with the broad Singapore August pattern of hot, humid days rather than sharp heat spikes. The key comparison point is that the contract is not about an average daily maximum; it is about the single highest reading before the day rolls over, which makes brief sunshine, cloud cover and local showers relevant to the final print. [1][2][8]

On the cross-platform comparison, the **prediction market** is materially tighter at the top than the weather services’ broad outlook, which mostly points to daytime highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius. AccuWeather’s August forecast range for Singapore shows highs around 87°F to 88°F, roughly 31°C to 31.5°C, while Singapore’s climate data show the city-state can exceed 34°C in extreme conditions, though that is uncommon at the airport station. That helps explain why 32°C commands the strongest crowd support, while 31°C remains the main alternative if cloud and showers cap the maximum earlier in the day. [1][2][4][14]

Traders should watch the late-morning and afternoon forecast updates from Singapore’s weather service, especially any thundery shower signals or stronger Southwest Monsoon flow, because those are the main variables that can pull the day’s top reading down by a degree or two. The market’s own rules also matter: revisions to the temperature data count only until the first datapoint for the following day is published, so any late adjustment to the Changi record before that cutoff can still change settlement. With the current crowd showing 0% for every outcome except the leading band, the practical question is less whether Singapore gets hot and more whether it reaches 32°C cleanly or stalls at 31°C. [1][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.