Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 11 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with measurements taken from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle through early morning hours.

Tokyo's August climate presents consistent thermal patterns. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that mid-August temperatures at Haneda typically peak between 32–35°C, with extreme readings occasionally exceeding 37°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting specific temperature thresholds to be defined or treating this as a calibration market. Comparable August markets across Japanese weather platforms show meaningful divergence: whilst sportsbooks rarely quote weather contracts, meteorological consensus models for summer 2026 remain preliminary given the two-year forecast horizon. Recent El Niño monitoring by NOAA indicates Pacific thermal patterns may influence regional heat distribution, though seasonal forecasting confidence remains moderate at this distance.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency advisories released in late July 2026, particularly any heat-wave warnings that typically emerge 7–10 days before peak conditions. Atmospheric pressure systems tracking across East Asia in early August will be the primary near-term catalyst, as will any revision to long-range climate outlooks published by regional forecasters. The specific temperature bands offered by this market—once clarified—will determine whether current odds reflect genuine uncertainty or simply incomplete market definition.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.