Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda’s highest temperature on 4 August will be set by the airport’s actual daytime peak, not by citywide averages, and the market settles on the Wunderground reading for Haneda Airport Station. With the contract currently pricing **0% YES**, the crowd is effectively saying the day will *not* land in the relevant temperature band, even though broad Tokyo forecasts still point to a hot summer afternoon. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Tokyo shows daily highs mostly in the low- to mid-30s °C, with 4 August specifically around 33°C/26°C, while other forecast services are similar, suggesting a warmer-than-average baseline rather than a marginal case.[1][3][11]

For historical framing, Tokyo’s August climatology is usually hot and humid, and comparable forecasts cluster around 30–32°C for daytime maxima.[9][16][17] That matters because the market is not about an exact citywide maximum but about the single highest value recorded at Haneda on the day, where marine influence can keep extremes a little lower than inland parts of the metropolis. The current 0% implied probability is therefore a strong outlier versus the weather backdrop: if Haneda follows the usual August pattern, the realised high is likely to be well inside a warm-range outcome rather than a cold one.[8][10][16]

The main trader catalysts are the live intraday evolution of the Haneda observation itself, plus any late-day convective showers, sea-breeze effects, or typhoon-adjacent cloud and rain bands that can cap the afternoon high. Tokyo forecasts on 4 August show a broadly warm day with no obvious early-morning shock to temperatures, and the hourly outlook already implies a climb from the low 20s °C into the high 20s and beyond before the afternoon peak.[2][7] In cross-platform terms, the market’s 0% YES contrasts sharply with weather forecasters’ expectation of a hot August day, while there is no sportsbook-style pricing to anchor against, making the prediction-market line the clearest live signal on this contract.[1][2][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.