Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest air temperature reached at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station during the local calendar day, and the current crowd price of 0% YES implies traders do not expect the reading to land in the contract’s winning range. That is a sharper bearish signal than the broader public-weather benchmarks, which still point to a hot Tokyo summer: JMA has already logged Haneda at 35.6°C on 1 August and 33.0°C on 2 August in its daily station data, while Tokyo city averages for early August are usually around 31°C, with forecasts from mainstream weather sites clustered in the low 30s. [1][11][13]

Historical comparables argue for treating a 0% print cautiously rather than literally. August in Tokyo is normally hot and humid, with typical daytime highs around 30–33°C, and recent forecast products for the city have shown daily highs in the low-to-mid 30s rather than anything near the lower bands on the contract ladder. [2][7][12][13] That makes the market’s implied distribution look detached from seasonal normals, especially against Polymarket’s own live pricing, where the front of the book sits around 29°C and 30°C rather than at the very bottom of the range. [4]

For traders, the immediate catalysts are the hourly progression through Tokyo’s heating cycle and any shift in cloud cover, rain, or sea-breeze effects that could cap the peak before the usual mid-afternoon maximum. Time-and-date’s hour-by-hour outlook has Tokyo already in the high 20s Celsius in the morning, climbing towards the high 80s Fahrenheit by midday, which would support an above-average maximum if it verifies. [10] Cross-platform, the clearest divergence is between the market’s 0% YES, Polymarket’s much more balanced outcome prices, and mainstream weather commentary that continues to describe August in Tokyo as persistently hot rather than benign. [4][3][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.