Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s afternoon maximum on 6 August is the settleable event, and the live market is pricing a relatively modest outcome despite the seasonally hot backdrop. Polymarket’s current lead is **33°C at 24%**, with **34°C at 18%** and **32°C at 15%**; the contract is still trading with **0% on the broad “YES” side**, which matters because the market is about the exact temperature band rather than simply whether it will be hot.[5]

That pricing sits below the broader August norm. AccuWeather’s monthly outlook has Tokyo’s August highs clustered around **82°F to 90°F** and notes an average high of **86°F** (about **30°C**), while travel and climate guides put Tokyo’s typical August daytime maximum at roughly **31°C**.[2][10][13] The comparison with recent extremes is useful: Tokyo recorded **35°C** on 1 August, showing that much higher readings are possible this week, but the earliest available Japan Meteorological Agency daily values for August 2026 also show nearby Tokyo-area highs ranging from the low 30s to the high 30s, not a guaranteed spike into the upper 30s every day.[1][18]

For traders, the main catalysts are the intraday forecast revisions and the actual Haneda reading before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes. The JMA daily temperature table and the Wunderground history page are the relevant reference points for resolution, so any late-morning shift in cloud cover, sea breeze, or convective development could move the final band without much warning.[1][4] The current crowd price is also notably below the widest August heat narratives in recent reporting, which have described Japan as facing a brutal midsummer pattern, but those summaries are regional rather than airport-specific and do not override the local Haneda observation that decides this market.[14][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.