Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s **highest temperature** on 10 August is typically decided by a narrow range, because August is one of the city’s coolest months and daily highs cluster close to the low teens Celsius rather than spiking far above that. Long-run August climate data put average highs around **12°C to 13.6°C**, with historical daily maxima for nearby Wellington records often landing in the **8°C to 14°C** band, which helps explain why a contract priced at **0% YES** can still be read as a low-volatility weather line rather than a true long-shot.[6][9][1] In practical terms, the market is comparing whether the day’s peak temperature falls into the contract’s target range, not whether Wellington will be warm by normal standards.[14]

For traders, the key comparison is between prediction-market pricing, any sportsbook-style weather line if available, and the meteorological consensus implied by current observations. Weather Underground’s Wellington history page uses a daily high/low table and current history formatting, while AccuWeather’s live page for Wellington shows a forecast high of about **60°F** or roughly **16°C** for 10 August, with only modest precipitation risk and partly cloudy conditions, which is materially warmer than the month’s average but still not extreme.[12][14] The main catalysts are short-term forecast revisions, cloud cover timing, and wind shifts across the morning and midday window before the settlement cutoff at **12:00 UTC**; if the temperature peaks early, the market can resolve off a lower daily maximum than a later afternoon forecast would suggest.[3][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.