Highest temperature in Wellington on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record a maximum temperature on 12 August 2026, with the market asking which range that reading will fall within. The settlement relies on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces different values when stations report multiple peak readings throughout a day. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or minimal liquidity across all temperature bands.

August sits within Wellington's winter season, when mean daily highs typically range from 11–13°C, though the city's exposed location and variable weather patterns create meaningful variance. Historical data from comparable August days shows Wellington regularly experiences highs between 10–15°C, with occasional readings below 8°C during cold southerly outbreaks and rare days exceeding 16°C during föhn wind events. The current flat probability distribution indicates the market has not yet concentrated conviction around any single range, a common state for weather markets more than 18 months out where seasonal forecasting carries substantial uncertainty.

Traders should monitor MetService and NIWA seasonal outlooks as August 2026 approaches, particularly any signals regarding pressure patterns and Southern Ocean activity that typically drive Wellington's winter temperatures. The New Zealand Meteorological Service issues monthly climate summaries that could shift expectations if early-winter 2026 data shows anomalous warming or cooling trends. Station-specific factors—including any maintenance affecting the Wellington Airport sensor or changes to measurement protocols—would also influence the resolution source's readings, though such operational changes are typically announced well in advance.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.