Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport is not a place where August heat usually runs far above the low teens Celsius, so the key question here is whether the day’s top reading lands in the most common 10-14°C band or manages a brief spike above that. August averages for Wellington are around 12°C for the monthly high, with rainfall and wind both frequent enough to cap daytime warmth; that makes a zero-priced YES on a specific temperature bucket look aligned with the market’s expectation that the airport will not post an exceptional warm peak.[1][5][12]

Historically, the comparable cases suggest traders should think in terms of tightly clustered outcomes rather than a single dominant hot tail. Weather-history sources put Wellington’s August highs around 12-13.6°C on average, and one dataset cites a record August maximum of 61°F, or about 16°C, which is meaningfully above the usual range but still not especially extreme by broader standards.[1][2][6] That combination helps explain why prediction-market pricing can diverge from casual intuition: sportsbook-style lines, where available, tend to focus on a narrow “above/below” threshold, while this contract resolves across temperature ranges at the airport station, so analyst consensus is usually about the distribution centre rather than any one exact figure.[1][10]

The main catalysts are operational rather than dramatic: the final airport observation at Wellington Intl, the day’s wind and cloud cover, and whether any late-afternoon clearing allows a short-lived warm-up before the settlement window closes.[4][13] Wellington weather histories also show August can swing from cool mornings to modest daytime lifts, but the month is generally wet and breezy enough that traders should watch the live airport feed and any short-range forecast updates more than long-range seasonal averages.[1][5][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wellington on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.