Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan’s temperature on 10 August will be judged against the **highest reading at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station** in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, so the settleable figure is the day’s actual station maximum rather than the headline “Day High & Low” summary. In late-summer Wuhan, August is normally the city’s hottest month, with average highs clustered around the mid-30s °C and historical extremes reaching about 41°C, which means the contract is really a question of whether the day lands in the low, mid or upper 30s rather than whether it stays cool. Sources that track the market show the crowd leaning to a **30°C** outcome, while the current implied probability on the contract is **0% YES**, a sharp disconnect that suggests either thin liquidity, stale pricing or an unresolved interpretation gap rather than a confident consensus. [2][4][5][7][10]

Comparable Wuhan August data point to a broad heat-distribution, not a single tight anchor: recent years have produced daily highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with occasional spikes into the upper 30s and above. Weather Underground’s Wuhan history page currently shows a daytime high around **84°F/29°C** for the city, but that is a live summary and not the settlement source; the historical record across independent datasets still places early-to-mid August among the most heat-prone periods of the year. That matters because a contract like this tends to settle around the most common daily high band, while genuine outliers are usually driven by heatwaves rather than seasonal averages. [3][4][5][8][10]

The main catalyst is the actual Wuhan forecast and whether convection, rain bands or cloud cover suppress the afternoon peak before the settlement cut-off at 12:00 UTC. As of 10 August 2026, one weather feed shows Wuhan near **27°C** with patchy rain nearby and a day high around **29°C**, which is below the market’s current leading strike levels and supports a cooler reading if that pattern holds through the airport station’s observation window. Traders should watch the airport-specific hourly observations through the morning and early afternoon, because a brief sunny interval can still lift the maximum several degrees above the forecast high; the key dependency is therefore the timing of showers rather than the day’s average conditions. [13][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.