Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on 6 August 2026 will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final daily extract, with the contract resolving to the range containing the day’s “Absolute Daily Min” in degrees Celsius. The crowd is pricing **0% YES**, which implies the market is effectively saying a reading in the specified YES range is negligible versus the alternative outcome, although that should be read against the exact strike bands used on the platform rather than as a view on the weather itself.

Historically, early August in Hong Kong is consistently warm and humid rather than cool. The Observatory’s climate normals for 6 August put the mean minimum at **26.8°C** and the mean temperature at **28.9°C**, while August averages more broadly sit around **31.4°C** for the mean maximum and **28.8°C** for the mean temperature.[1][15] Comparable August climatology from other historical datasets also points to overnight lows in the **mid-to-high 20s Celsius**, with only rare extreme lows far below that range.[2][12] That backdrop helps explain why a sub-trend or unusually low minimum would be a tail event, and why the market’s implied probability may be materially different from broad weather expectations.

For traders, the main catalyst is the Observatory’s publication timing rather than any single intraday forecast. The settlement source will not be final until the relevant daily extract is posted, so the key dependency is whether the Observatory issues the completed record for 6 August after the observation day closes.[15] Recent regional weather reporting shows how volatile summer conditions can be in Hong Kong, including severe rainfall and warnings in August 2025, but those events matter here mainly insofar as cloud, rain, and wind can limit nocturnal cooling rather than create a large downside surprise in minimum temperature.[17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.