Highest temperature in Dallas on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas’s temperature on 6 August will be settled by the highest reading at the Dallas Love Field station, and the crowd is currently treating a **100–101°F** outcome as the most likely result, with a **66%** implied probability on Polymarket; the next band, **98–99°F**, sits at **32%**, while **102–103°F** is only **2%**. That is a sharply priced market for a summer heat event, but the contract-specific settlement rule matters more than the general “day high” headline, because the final figure comes from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than the summary high/low display. [1][6]

Historical and comparable pricing suggests the market is reading Dallas heat as normal-for-August rather than exceptional. Weather Underground’s history page for the same station is the relevant resolution source, while AccuWeather’s monthly view and NWS material show Dallas routinely faces very warm early-August conditions, including forecast highs around the mid-90s to low-100s in comparable periods. [2][3][5] In cross-platform terms, the Polymarket line is already more specific than the broad outside forecast consensus: the market’s near-certainty on a 100–101°F bin implies traders are leaning towards a steady afternoon peak rather than an over- or under-shoot, whereas sportsbook-style weather pricing, where available, often clusters around the single-day max rather than a banded range.

The main catalysts are straightforward but operationally important: the afternoon heating cycle, any last-minute changes in cloud cover or southerly flow, and the publication timing of the final Weather Underground observation sequence. Polymarket notes that revisions are accepted until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so late data can still move the contract after the day ends. [1] A recent CBS Texas forecast also pointed to continuing hot weather in North Texas with triple-digit conditions in the region, which supports the market’s bias towards the 100°F-plus bins even if the exact bucket remains sensitive to the top end of the day’s measurements. [7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.